Tropical cyclones are already among the most devastating of natural hazards. New research predicts, however, that the intensity of future tropical cyclones in Southeast Asia’s Mekong River Basin will increase. The study was conducted as part of the research theme – Climate Change and Water Resources in the Great River Regions in Southeast and South Asia –led by Prof. Deliang Chen, the August Rohss Chair at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, under the Pan-TPE, a TPE-related science project.
As home to 70 million people, the Mekong River Basin is often affected by tropical cyclones that make landfall in the region, causing fatalities and property damage. The intensity of tropical cyclones is a critical factor in the majority of losses arising from intense tropical cyclones. Previous climate models have projected increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the 21st century due to global warming over the Western North Pacific, which is one of the primary source regions for tropical cyclones affecting the Mekong River Basin.
This research employed a downscaling technique based on a specialized, coupled ocean-atmospheric model and estimated future tropical cyclone intensity in the Mekong River Basin. Under a high emission RCP8.5 scenario, for the years 2081-2100, the maximum wind speed return period for Mekong River Basin tropical cyclones is projected to be shorter than the return period for the years 1981-2000. This suggests an increase in future tropical cyclone intensity for the Mekong River Basin. In particular, this increase is larger for areas closer to the coast.
Rising tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase tropical cyclone-related risk in riparian countries, including Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. In addition, it may disturb global food markets by affecting rice production in the two most important rice exporting countries in the world (Thailand and Vietnam). Therefore, results from this study point to consistently elevated future tropical cyclone-related risks that may disrupt food supplies, exacerbate conflicts, and jeopardize sustainable development in the region and beyond.
Ph.D. candidate Aifang Chen is the first author, and Prof. Deliang Chen is the corresponding author. This work was supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA20060401), the China Scholarship Council, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (91537210), the Swedish STINT (CH2015–6226), and the Swedish VR (2017-03780).
Title of article: Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin
Link to article: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.11.022
Contact: Deliang Chen, professor at the Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg
Tel.: +46 (0)31-786 4813, E-mail: deliang@gvc.gu.se
Photo: The Cyclone Isabel photographed in 2003 from the International Space Station by astronaut Ed Lu.
