“Even if warming was limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, all major producing countries would still face notable yield reduction. “ Observes
Prof. WANG Xuhui,lead author of the study from
Peking University.
Earlier reports about the warming impacts on global crop yield show large uncertainties: differences go as big as three-fold with different approaches resulting in contrasting spatial patterns. Improving the projections is no easy task: on one hand, it is unlikely for scientists to set up warming experiements in all cultivated area; On the other, the results of current models may not be reliable. This new study offers a solution to the dilemma by providing observation constrained projections on how warming would affect yield of four major crops (wheat, maize, rice and soybean) for the globe and major producers. According to the study, there is a 95% probability that warmer temperatures would reduce yields for maize (-7.1 ± 2.8% K-1), rice (-5.6 ± 2.0% K-1) and soybean (-10.6 ± 5.8% K-1), while wheat yield, being the most optimistic, has about 90% chance to experience warming-induced losses (-2.9 ± 2.3% K-1). Crop yield of all major producer would not benefit from the warmer climate, though larger uncertainties remain for some less studied regions.“We are still working to further improve the projections over pan-Third Pole regions, where the regional characteristics were not yet well represented by either the experiments or the models,” says
Prof. PIAO Shilong , senior author of the study from
CETES , “besides, the crop adaptation measure is also a top priority.” This study suggests that even if global warming can be limited to 2 degrees Celsius as agreed upon in the Paris Agreement, the impact on crop production and thus food security would be significant. It requires immediate adaptation actions and region-specific comprehensive policy design, if we intended to achieve “zero hunger”, as part of the Sustainable Development Goals.
